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A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.