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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.